Global Gray Swans Tool

07 August 2025 / Database

In today’s increasingly volatile, uncertain, and interconnected world, anticipating Gray Swans is critical to business preparedness.

What Are Gray Swans?

Think of Gray Swans as the outer limits of what is possible that packs a punch if it happens.

Welcome to the Global Gray Swans Tool!

The Conference Board Global Gray Swans Tool is fueled by real-time analysis and global business insights from our experts.

Why C-Suite Executives Need This Tool

The Conference Board Global Gray Swans Tool is unique, indispensable, and offers significant benefits for business leaders:

In today’s increasingly volatile, uncertain, and interconnected world, anticipating Gray Swans is critical to business preparedness.

Think of Gray Swans as the outer limits of what is possible that packs a punch if it happens.

Gray Swans are conceivable, low-probability events, presenting material, business-altering implications for your company if realized.
Gray Swans are unlike black swans. Black swans are low-probability, high-impact events that are, frankly, unimaginable.
Gray Swans are also distinct from risks. Risks are identifiable and highly impactful but possess a greater likelihood of occurrence and thereby receive more attention.

The Conference Board Global Gray Swans Tool is fueled by real-time analysis and global business insights from our experts.

Economic, Social, Environmental, Geopolitical, Policy-Induced, Technological

The tool describes and scores ‘Gray Swan’ events, that may start in one region or industry but have global spillover effects that alter how companies do business.
The tool allows executives to dynamically assess threat or opportunity levels (-5 to +5), plot potential business impacts, and enable formulation of response scenarios.

Actions and Variables of the Gray Swans Tool

The Conference Board Global Gray Swans Tool is unique, indispensable, and offers significant benefits for business leaders:

Empowers executives with the ability to identify, monitor, prepare, and/or mobilize for events that may significantly affect their business
Facilitates intertemporal thinking and decision-making in Boardrooms and C-Suites, and among Management, Operations, Finance, Risk, and Strategy leaders
Describes the macroeconomic, political, business, and societal relevance of long-shot events with their implications
Includes TCB experts’ unbiased, apolitical, and reasoned scoring of the direction and intensity of swan events, by region and industry.
Includes a scenario planning section to determine the importance of a swan event to your company, and whether and what actions leaders should take against it
Allows executives to customize their experience by filtering swan events and changing impact scores, to better reflect their business needs
Provides support for forum discussions, thought-leadership, and peer-to-peer networks to consider plausible swan events while avoiding GroupThink
Enables stronger franchise risk management and identification of opportunities for growth

Need help getting started?
Download our Guide or contact us at ESFCenter@TCB.org to schedule a 20-minute walkthrough.